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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/20 11:24

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans are the midday leader in mixed action.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 85. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is narrowly mixed. Energies 
are mostly higher with crude flat. Livestock trade is narrowly mixed. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $1.70.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with the big crop tour going out 
this week, wetter nearby weather and spillover support from soybeans overnight 
fading during the day session. Ethanol margins remain tighter with corn at the 
upper end of the recent range and summer driving season winding down with 
ethanol futures sliding towards the 1.30 area, down another penny this morning. 
Corn basis will likely continue to fade with more harvest activity building 
with the advanced crop. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady 
conditions with maturity still running well ahead of normal. The weekly export 
inspections were down a little bit at 1.096 million metric tons. On the 
December chart futures have support at the 50-day moving average at $3.74, 
which we have held after fading below the 20-day at $3.78 this morning. 


   Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents higher at midday with trade fading from 15 
cent higher trade overnight with optimism about deals being made on the trade 
front even as rains fall across the belt. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 
25 to 35 points higher. The crop tour will cover soybeans this week as well, 
but trade progress will probably be more supportive with the big yield numbers 
already out there. Basis continues to crumble ahead of harvest with early 
harvest just over the horizon and the export program under booked for fall. 
Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to slightly lower conditions, 
and advanced maturity. The weekly export inspections held up decently well at 
639,001 metric tons. On the November chart support is at the $8.90 20-day and 
50-day which we closed just above on Friday. Resistance is the $9.22 two-month 


   Wheat trade is 13 to 18 cents lower at midday with fewer Black Sea concerns 
and weaker trade in Europe to open the week. Spring wheat harvest should 
continue to move along at a good clip with varied yields so far. The strong 
U.S. dollar is keeping the U.S. less competitive on the world market with the 
ongoing issues with Middle Eastern importers focusing on the Black Sea for 
origination even as their prices rise. Matif wheat is down slightly to start 
the week as well. Australia remains on the dry side with the crop pace ahead of 
normal as well with some relief for some areas. Weekly crop progress should 
show spring wheat past the halfway point. Export inspections continued at the 
recent pace at 345,375 metric tons. On the December Kansas City chart, we have 
support at the 100-day at 5.60, with resistance the recent high at $5.94.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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