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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/19 11:46

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans are the midday leader, with corn flat, and wheat lower.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed at midday with the Dow futures down 
35 points.  The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 10 
higher. Energies are lower with crude down 0.70. Livestock trade is mostly 
lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold 6.50 higher. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is flat to a penny higher at midday with trade pulling back from 
an early test of resistance. Ethanol margins are slightly tighter with firmer 
corn and softer energy values. Corn basis set back slightly on increased 
selling on the futures rally with carry steady. Warmer weather should help to 
throttle back livestock feeding coming forward. The weekly export sales were 
strong at 1.89 million metric tons, but at midday the market is acting as if 
this is old news. On the March chart support is the 50-day at $3.52 we are 
right around at midday, with the 20-day at $3.50 below that, and resistance at 
the 100-day at $3.58. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents higher with trade closing in on the next round 
of resistance with light buying continuing and trade has pulled back from a 
test of the 50-day moving average. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 higher and oil is 
narrowly mixed. South American weather looks to continue the recent pattern in 
the near term with the north and south dry, and the middle wet, with the most 
concerns in Argentina. Basis and carry remains mostly sideways. Weekly export 
sales were improved at 1.24 million metric tons of beans, 281,000 of meal, and 
27,900 of oil. The export wire was quiet again this morning, with only new crop 
sales on the wire so far this week. On the March, support is the 10-day and 
20-day $9.64 that we have tested this morning and resistance the 50-day at 
$9.84. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is flat to 4 cents lower with trade chopping lower going into 
the weekend. Warmer weather should be the rule in the near term, but moisture 
will likely remain short in the near term for much of the Plains. The dollar 
remains below 91 on the index with the trend still lower, with rallies being 
sold. The gap between U.S. and Russian origin has narrowed but remains more 
favorable to Russia with U.S. export sales remaining weak at 153,000 metric 
tons. On the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the lows at $4.10, 
with the weekly low of $4.21 becoming nearby support with the 20-day at $4.29 
as the first level of resistance with the 50-day at $4.30 above that, which we 
tested this morning.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(BAS)

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